CHAPTER 10: Find The Black Swan

Summary

• The author recounts a real-life hostage situation that occurred in 1981 in Rochester, New York, where a man killed multiple people and took hostages in a bank
• The situation was a standoff for 3.5 hours, and the man gave a deadline for a shoot-out with police or he would start killing hostages
• Historically, hostage-takers wanted money, respect, or a helicopter, but this situation was different and the man was only coming out in a body bag
• The author uses this situation to illustrate the concept of "Black Swans," which are hidden and unexpected pieces of information that can drastically change a negotiation dynamic
• The author suggests that finding and utilizing Black Swans can lead to negotiation breakthroughs and shifts in favor for the person identifying them
• Black Swans are hidden and unexpected pieces of information that have game-changing effects on negotiation dynamics.
• The FBI's handling of a 1981 bank hostage situation in Rochester, New York, was hindered by an overreliance on known knowns and a failure to uncover unknown unknowns.
• The negotiator must remain flexible and adaptable to any situation and always retain a beginner's mind, not overvaluing their experience or undervaluing the informational and emotional realities presented.
• Finding and acting on Black Swans requires a shift in mindset, embracing more intuitive and nuanced ways of listening.
• Conventional questioning and research techniques are designed to confirm known knowns and reduce uncertainty, not to uncover unknown unknowns.
• It is important for people of all walks of life to unearth and adapt to Black Swans to avoid potential negative consequences.
• The key is to identify the questions to ask the customer, the user, or the counterpart to uncover the unknown unknowns.
• The podcast episode discusses the concept of "Black Swans" in negotiation, which are hidden and unexpected pieces of information that can have game-changing effects on a negotiation dynamic.
• The example given is a 1981 hostage standoff in Rochester, NY, where the perpetrator, William Griffin, wanted to die and wanted the police to do it for him. This was not a known known, and the FBI's attempts to fit the situation into past templates led to failure.
• The episode stresses the importance of remaining flexible and adaptable to any situation, and retaining a beginner's mind in order to uncover unknown unknowns.
• The episode also discusses the concept of leverage in negotiation, including positive leverage (the ability to provide or withhold what the other party wants), negative leverage (the ability to make the other party suffer through threats), and normative leverage (the ability to appeal to the other party's sense of morality or social norms).
• It's important to be aware of potential negative consequences and handle negative leverage with care.
• The speaker, a negotiator, recounts a hostage situation in which the hostage taker had a desire to die but also a set of rules of military honor that he abided by.
• They used this information to generate both positive and negative leverage (the desire to live and the threat of taking that away) and emphasized to the hostage taker that he had already made national news and that his message would survive if he lived.
• The team used deep listening to understand the hostage taker's worldview and found that he was a devout Christian.
• By positioning their demands within his worldview, they showed him respect and were able to get him to end the standoff honorably.
• Knowing the hostage taker's religion was more than just gaining normative leverage, it was gaining a holistic understanding of his worldview and using that knowledge to inform negotiating moves.
• Using the hostage taker's religion was effective because it had authority over him and people defer to that authority.
• The speaker is discussing how to use your counterpart's unattained goals to your advantage in negotiations.
• He uses the example of the owner of the Washington Wizards and Washington Capitals professional sports teams, who talks about creating "immortal moments" that people will tell their grandchildren about.
• He then discusses a study that shows people respond positively to requests that are made in a reasonable tone of voice and followed with a "because" reason.
• He suggests that when faced with a more complicated issue, one can increase effectiveness by offering reasons that reference the counterpart's religion.
• He criticizes the US policy of not negotiating with "terrorists", and argues that not understanding the other side's religion, fanaticism, and delusions is the wrong approach.
• He argues that even when one is ready to declare "they're crazy!" it is a good moment for discovering Black Swans that transform a negotiation and that it is crucial to push forward into the unknown in order to gain influence.
• Black Swans are powerful information that can transform a negotiation, but they are hard to uncover
• Getting face time is important in finding Black Swans, as it's difficult to find them through email
• Observe unguarded moments, such as before and after formal interactions, as they can reveal more about the other side than the formal interactions
• Use calibrated questions and labels to knock your counterpart off their moorings and reveal their true interests
• When you recognize that your counterpart is not irrational, but simply ill-informed, constrained, or obeying interests that you do not yet know, your field of movement greatly expands
• It is important to understand the other side's worldview and use that knowledge to inform your negotiating moves.
• The speaker describes a real-life example of a student of his who successfully negotiated the purchase of a building for his firm using techniques discussed in the episode such as labels, calibrated questions, and probing of constraints to unearth a "Black Swan" (a previously unknown constraint or opportunity).
• The student used an "extreme anchor" (a lowball offer) to try to get the seller to reveal their minimum price, and was able to negotiate the final price to be lower than his initial goal.
• The speaker notes that the student could have improved the negotiation by discussing the other properties the seller owned and potentially finding more investment opportunities and building more empathy with the seller.
• The speaker also talks about how people often avoid conflict and useful arguments out of fear of personal attacks, and how this can harm relationships and lead to "wimp-win" deals.
• Black Swans are unexpected events that can greatly impact negotiation outcomes.
• They can be leveraged to achieve positive, negative, or normative leverage.
• Understanding the other side's worldview and 'religion' can help uncover Black Swans.
• Review everything you hear from your counterpart and use backup listeners.
• Exploit the similarity principle by finding common ground with your counterpart.
• When faced with irrational behavior, search for constraints, hidden desires, and bad information.
• Get face time with your counterpart and pay attention to verbal and nonverbal communication at unguarded moments.
• Negotiation experts typically advise to prepare by making a list of your bottom line, what you want, how to get there, and counters to your counterpart's arguments.
• But this approach fails in many ways and leads to mediocre results.
• The BATNA (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement) is the centerpiece of traditional preparation and its greatest weakness.
• BATNA tricks negotiators into aiming low, and once a negotiation is under way, we tend to gravitate towards the focus point that has the most psychological significance for us.
• So if BATNA isn't the centerpiece, what should be? The outcome extremes: best and worst.
• Think about what you cannot accept and have an idea about the best-case outcome but remain open to better things.
• The four steps for setting a goal: set an optimistic